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Like children playing tic-tac-toe, the football coach jabs his Xs and Os on the board in front of his eager players. They know their positions. The coach draws a line from each X to the opposing O. It represents a vicious block that will knock down the opponents, clearing the way for the ball carrier to streak to the end zone for a touchdown. Every play is a touchdown, if…

Do the plays on the field ever develop that way? Rarely. Some big brute usually gets in the way, smashes his would-be blocker flat, and stuffs the runner after a gain of a yard or two. The daylight between tacklers closes in seconds. Yet the exciting possibility of a breakthrough drives the team back to the huddle for another chance to crack the line and score.

On paper our plans for world evangelization look like surefire touchdowns. Recent literature informs me of new plans that will succeed by 2025, even though we failed to get the job done by 2000. New coaches have arisen with new Xs and Os. All we need are blockers to clear our path to victory. Do I wish every play produced a touchdown? Of course I do. Hardworking, longsuffering missionaries feel the same way. When will the breakthroughs come against Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, Shintoism, Shamanism and so on? Where are we on Christ’s triumphal march to victory?

I don’t know and neither does anyone else. I do know we are on the way, but a lot of stubborn opposition remains to be overcome. I wish I could say that we will win by 2025, but I hesitate to say that because of the Bible and history. I am absolutely certain that victory will come when we least expect it. I am sure that it will not come because we plan for it.I edited a 1988 book for David Barrett called Seven Hundred Plans to Evangelize the World. One of the most valuable pieces of research that David did for that book was the chapter called “Three hundred and forty reasons for 534 failed plans.” That chapter taught me to exercise extreme caution about claiming touchdowns for mission strategy plans. So many things have gone wrong—and will continue to go wrong—that I tend to be a contrarian on these matters.

Of course, I agree with those who say that we need new plans to inspire churches and missionary recruits and donors. Excitement generates excitement in missions as in anything else. But our excitement must be tempered with doses of realism and counting the cost. We cannot promise that our linemen will clear the way for our halfbacks and fullbacks. What can derail a touchdown play? Plenty of things, most of them beyond our control.

In the past, world evangelism plans have been torpedoed by sickness, death, accidents, malfeasance in office, adultery, financial scandals and natural disasters. Sin remains an extraordinarily powerful tool in the hands of our enemies. Enemy strongholds do not yield to hit-and-run, slapdash attacks.

In sixty minutes of football, training and conditioning—and playing with pain—count for more than enthusiasm. Enthusiasm dissipates like a pat of butter in the hot sun when a three hundred-pounder bashes you a couple of times.

Jesus did not give his disciples a diagrammed play for success. He told them that he would train them to be fruit bearing disciples, but in the process they would be knocked around a lot. He trained them to love and serve him above everything else, even at the cost of their lives. They could not look back. Total abandonment of their old ways was required for success.When they got the picture, they scored plenty of touchdowns and turned the world upside down. Jesus crowned their hardships with glory, but final victory eluded them. Jesus has a touchdown play for his church and he has a role for everyone in his triumph. Happy are those who take his signals seriously and do their best to carry them out.